Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
