🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Made $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro just before it was officially announced, sparking debate about whether someone profited from non-public details of the event. Changing Odds in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the period preceding Donald Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been seized. A single trader, which became a member recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a modest bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Platform data shows that traders assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the midday period of the Friday before the event. Yet the odds had increased to eleven percent by the end of the day and surged in the early hours of the next day, pointing to a rapid movement in market sentiment right before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate. A handful of other individuals also made large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A new rule presented on recently aims to prohibit public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Market Background Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting space. A company executive for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."